UN: the inexorable reduction of global fertility

New York, 2025 – According to the new World Fertility Report 2024 published by the United Nations, global fertility fell to 2.2 children per woman in 2024, compared to 5 children per woman in the 1960s. The downward trend will continue, with a projected value of 1.8 children per woman by 2100.

The research shows that more than 55% of countries, representing more than two-thirds of the world's population, already have fertility below replacement level. "Fertility below replacement level" means that the average number of children per woman is less than 2.1, which is the value necessary for a population to remain stable in the long run, without considering immigration.

Why is the substitution level 2.1 and not 2.0?

To replace itself, each couple would have to have 2 children, but - since not all children make it to adulthood due to infant mortality and other factors - the fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is considered sufficient to keep the population constant in societies with low mortality.

If a country has a fertility rate below 2.1 for an extended period, there are three phenomena:

• the population begins to decrease, unless there is immigration;
• the average age of the population increases with important consequences, including the shortage of labor force and the increase in pension spending;
• the number of young people is decreasing, with effects on the economy, education and innovation.

Among the countries with fertility below the replacement level are: India, China, the United States, Brazil and Russia. In addition, the decline in fertility is particularly evident in some Asian countries, which are places where rates have reached record negative levels. China, South Korea, Singapore and Ukraine have less than 1 child per woman. This phenomenon is leading to the rapid aging of the population and the dramatic reduction of the workforce.

Among the main causes of the global decline in fertility are:

• better education and female employment, which leads women to want to postpone and/or reduce the number of children
• high costs for the education and growth of children, especially in the most developed countries;
• lack of parenting support, such as adequate parental leave and childcare.

Despite the general decline, some countries - mainly in sub-Saharan Africa - continue to record high fertility rates with more than 4 children per woman. However, even here, we are witnessing a gradual decrease. And, for 2054, the World Fertility Report 2024 predicts a fertility rate of less than 2.1 children per woman in almost all countries.

In order to counteract the consequences of the low birth rate, governments and various decision-makers should implement - according to the Report - policies to support families, ensure that there is equality between men and women in the performance of domestic work and guarantee universal access to everything related to the protection of reproductive health.