Projects

Democracy: An Investment in Welfare and Peace (DEM.IN.W.Peace)

The DEM.IN.W.PEACE project examines the interconnections among democracy, welfare, and the promotion of peace, with the aim of generating innovative policy recommendations. The project begins by adopting an operational definition of positive societal peace grounded in four pillars: (i) democracy and institutional quality; (ii) standards of living and economic opportunity; (iii) health and welfare systems; and (iv) the incidence and diffusion of societal violence.

Within a multilevel framework, the measurement and definition of societal peace also account for the impact of: (a) the emergence and severity of international armed conflicts; (b) the rise of regional militarism and military expenditure; (c) global shocks in domains such as health and climate; (d) the role of international institutions and regimes; and (e) Track II diplomacy, including academic cooperation, cultural diplomacy, and civil-society engagement.

PRIN Project "Climate Change, Violent Conflicts, and Welfare" (CC2C)

CC2C studies how climate change—especially agrifood shocks—drives social instability and violent conflict across institutional contexts. Using a multi-scale design linking macro, meso, and micro dynamics, it analyzes mechanisms in the Andes, West Africa, and Southeast Asia to capture variation in exposure, governance, and adaptation. Integrating remote sensing, historical climate records, economic and conflict datasets, and field evidence, CC2C maps causal pathways from environmental stress to unrest and welfare losses and translates findings into policy guidance for LDCs and advanced economies. It examines riots, non-state conflict, and civil war, tracing how price spikes, livelihood erosion, displacement, and resource competition interact with political institutions, markets, and social networks. By connecting levels, CC2C identifies when shocks escalate and where policy can reduce risk.