Seminars

Climate change, cooperation and conflict: Evidence from Bangladesh

Nina von Uexkull, Jan Freihardt, Vally Koubi

Abstract

Climate change is widely framed as a driver of armed conflict. However, this focus overlooks important cooperation and conflict dynamics in settings characterized by relative stability where the majority of climate-vulnerable populations live. Drawing on a multi-wave panel of approximately 1,300 households in 36 villages along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh, we examine how riverine flooding and riverbank erosion relate to cooperation and conflict in a climate-vulnerable context outside zones of organized armed conflict. We find that household-level hazard impacts are consistently associated with higher levels of cooperation both in-group (toward fellow villagers) and out-group (toward strangers from outside the village), particularly in villages where many households are affected. Conflict responses, by contrast, emerge only under specific conditions. Specifically, support for violence rises primarily among those who feel socially excluded or report low levels of generalized trust, highlighting the critical roles of trust and inclusion in shaping resilience to climate-related hazards. Overall, these findings indicate that cooperation rather than conflict is the predominant social response to climate-related hazards in this setting, underscoring the importance of considering cooperative alongside conflictual dynamics in climate–security research.

The Role of Private Enterprises in Sustaining Conflict and Building Peace

Book Description

Private corporations are rarely discussed as playing a role in efforts to curb civil violence, even though they often have strong interests in maintaining stability. Violence often damages the infrastructure necessary to deliver goods to market or may directly target companies. Corporations also have a normative obligation to conduct business in ways that promote peace. While there are historical examples of firm-instigated violence and firms reaping benefits from instability and conflict, there is also evidence that corporations proactively engage in peacebuilding. For example, firms devise programs to promote economic development, offer access to education, and employ former combatants.

In The Building and Breaking of Peace, Molly M. Melin develops a theory of the conflicting roles corporations play in both building and preventing peace. Melin shows that corporations engage in peacebuilding when there is a gap in the state's capacity to enforce laws, but they also weigh the opportunity costs of peacebuilding, responding to the need for action when conditions enable them to do so. Firms are uniquely situated in their ability to raise the cost of violence, and proactive firms can increase the years of peace in a country. At the same time, an active private sector can make it harder for states with ongoing conflict to reach an agreement, as they act as an additional veto player in the bargaining process.
Including original cross-national data of peacebuilding efforts by firms in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa from 2000 to 2018, and in-depth case analyses of corporate actions and outcomes in Colombia, Northern Ireland, and Tunisia, Melin shows that corporations help to prevent violence but not resolve it. In examining the corporate motives for peacebuilding and the implications of these activities for preventing violence and conflict resolution, the book builds a more holistic picture of the peace and conflict process. The findings also help explain why armed civil conflicts persist despite the multitude of diverse actors working to end them.

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Global Entropy: Restructuring the Post-Liberal World is an international conference hosted by ASERI, in partnership with IPSC, at the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, to be held in Milan on 15–16 April 2026. The event will bring together distinguished scholars and experts from leading universities and research institutions for two days of high-level discussion on the political, economic, and strategic transformations reshaping the contemporary international order. By fostering dialogue across disciplines and perspectives, the conference aims to provide a timely forum for critical reflection on the challenges and uncertainties that define the post-liberal global landscape. Open to both academic and wider interested audiences, the initiative offers an important opportunity for exchange on some of the most pressing issues in international affairs today.

Does Heat Increase the Potential for Peace Events?

Neil T. N. Ferguson and Jennifer Wilhelm

Abstract

Climate change poses an increasing threat to peace. Heat is linked to escalations in conflict and concerns are raised that a warming world could create uncontrollable spirals of violence. While it is tempting to think this also undermines peaceful conflict resolution, theory on transitions out of conflict paints a more nuanced picture. Escalating violence is a predictor of the end of conflict, via military and peaceful means. Higher violence could increase the “hurting” of a stalemate and could draw the attention of the international community, encouraging peace events. Disaster diplomacy suggests renewed attention and aid could be drawn to conflict settings, increasing efforts towards peace. Yet, it is also intuitive why escalating violence might undermine potential peace events. Noting this ambiguity, we test the impact of the exogenous onset of El Niño and La Niña on the number of on-going peace events – specifically, negotiation and mediation processes. We show that El Niño is correlated with an increased number of peace events and La Niña with a reduction. Additional analyses show that these effects are not driven, solely, by escalating violence and are not, simply, the outcome of an increased number of conflicts. This suggests that heat plays a specific role in determining peace events, like negotiations and mediations. While escalating conflict in a warming world remains a risk, efforts to resolve these conflicts peacefully are not fatally undermined.