Webinar

Nina VonUexkull

University of Kostanz

13th May 2026 15.30

Title: Climate change, cooperation and conflict: Evidence from Bangladesh

Authors: Nina von Uexkull (University of Konstanz and PRIO), Jan Freihardt (ETH Zurich), Vally Koubi (ETH Zurich)

Abstract:

Climate change is widely framed as a driver of armed conflict. However, this focus overlooks important cooperation and conflict dynamics in settings characterized by relative stability where the majority of climate-vulnerable populations live. Drawing on a multi-wave panel of approximately 1,300 households in 36 villages along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh, we examine how riverine flooding and riverbank erosion relate to cooperation and conflict in a climate-vulnerable context outside zones of organized armed conflict. We find that household-level hazard impacts are consistently associated with higher levels of cooperation both in-group (toward fellow villagers) and out-group (toward strangers from outside the village), particularly in villages where many households are affected. Conflict responses, by contrast, emerge only under specific conditions. Specifically, support for violence rises primarily among those who feel socially excluded or report low levels of generalized trust, highlighting the critical roles of trust and inclusion in shaping resilience to climate-related hazards. Overall, these findings indicate that cooperation rather than conflict is the predominant social response to climate-related hazards in this setting, underscoring the importance of considering cooperative alongside conflictual dynamics in climate–security research.