Webinar

Michael Spagat

Royal Holloway College, University of London

19th May 2026 14.30

Title: Demographic Fingerprints of Armed Conflict: A Clustering Analysis of Age-Sex Mortality Patterns

Abstract:

Understanding the demographic patterns of death in armed conflicts provides crucial insights into the nature of violence and can inform accountability efforts. This study introduces the concept of a conflict's demographic fingerprint — the full age-sex distribution of deaths across five-year age groups — and employs hierarchical clustering using Hellinger distance to group 20 conflicts spanning the 20th and 21st centuries by the similarity of their fingerprints. The analysis reveals three distinct cluster types. Combatant-skewed conflicts show deaths concentrated among young adult males, consistent with armed groups fighting each other (examples: Colombia, Northern Ireland, Peru). Male-targeted conflicts show elevated male mortality across a wide adult age range, consistent with systematic killing of men regardless of combatant status (examples: Bosnia, Srebrenica, Kosovo). Indiscriminate conflicts show deaths spread broadly across ages and sexes, with substantial proportions of women, children and elderly (examples: Rwanda, Cambodia, El Mozote). The central finding is that Gaza post-October 7 falls within the Indiscriminate cluster alongside Rwanda, Cambodia and El Mozote — cases universally recognised as mass atrocities or genocides. This result is robust across two independent analyses: one based on raw death fractions and a second based on death rates per 100,000 population, which accounts for Gaza's young population structure. Like a fingerprint at a crime scene, demographic cluster membership is evidence rather than a verdict — it does not by itself establish genocidal intent. However, it places Gaza in uncomfortable demographic company and substantially narrows the range of plausible innocent explanations. This approach complements traditional conflict analysis and provides quantitative evidence relevant to international humanitarian law and human rights investigations.