CLE Seminar: Marco Le Moglie

Seminar Series

Friday, 21 February 2025, 12 p.m.

Room G.125

Marco LE MOGLIE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

Mafia, Politics and Machine Predictions

Abstract: We demonstrate that machine learning can predict mafia infiltration in Italian local governments, measured by the dismissal of councils due to organized crime: we predict 96% of infiltrated governments (or 89% when focusing on the top 5% highest risk municipalities), even two years in advance, making it a valuable tool for preemptive action. Notably, false positives share many traits with infiltrated governments, suggesting some may have evaded detection. We apply this time-varying measure of organized crime to explore how a positive shock in public spending (EU transfers) impacts rent-seeking, highlighting the unintended consequences of aid being misappropriated by criminal organizations.